Polarizing Fantasy Players: Justin Forsett

(Editor's note: From now until the start of the season, VICE Sports will look at some of fantasy football's most polarizing players.)

Justin Forsett's 2014 performance was so good and so valuable for fantasy football, you'd be crazy not to consider him at least a second-round draft pick in '15. The film doesn't lie. Forsett was awesome: shifty, fast, a good pass catcher, and the beneficiary of a terrific offensive line. He finished as fantasy's No. 8 RB, with 1,529 scrimmage yards and eight TDs.

Alas, my experience analyzing NFL players tells me we can't take Forsett's surprise emergence in a vacuum. Heading into this year's fantasy football drafts, I find him to be one of the league's most polarizing players. I just can't find many comparisons for a running back who hadn't even been a starter in six pro seasons, who's 5'8" and 195 pounds, who's about to turn 30, and who suddenly went bananas. It's a truly unique case and it scares the bejeezus out of me.

I need to emphasize: Forsett was no mirage in '14. He saved the Baltimore Ravens' bacon after they lost Ray Rice for the season. Bernard Pierce was the presumptive starter but didn't excel the way the team hoped, and Forsett emerged as an every-down back. He played on two-thirds of the Ravens' offensive snaps, only occasionally ceding touches to players like Pierce, Lorenzo Taliaferro and Fitzgerald Toussaint. Most compelling in Forsett's repertoire was his excellent vision, which he used behind that solid Baltimore line to make chunk plays. This wasn't a statistical anomaly. Forsett really was that good.

So why shouldn't we just expect the good performance to continue? Or why can't it even get a little better? The offensive line is basically the same and is still led by mauling left guard Marshall Yanda. And new offensive coordinator Marc Trestman is known for making his RBs big-time reception monsters, from Derek Loville to Michael Pittman to Charlie Garner to Matt Forte. Forsett "only" had 44 catches in '14 while Forte had 102.

I get all these arguments. But something about Forsett feels like a one-year wonder. He's such a little guy! My research uncovered that since '01, no running back 5'8" or shorter and lighter than 200 pounds had even eclipsed 650 rushing yards in a season until Forsett went for 1,266 last year. (For the record, that prior mighty mite who logged 650 yards was Leon Washington in '06.) Players this size just don't last. You've got Washington. You've got Kendall Hunter. You've got La'Rod Stephens-Howling. You've got Quentin Griffin. These guys all broke down fairly early in their careers. If Forsett gets 17-plus touches per game again this season, history tells us he'll get crunched.

In general, I don't think it's a winning fantasy strategy to go into a season being "sure" that a certain player will get hurt (maybe unless that player's name is Darren McFadden). I don't have the Grays Almanac from "Back To The Future" that'll tell me what will happen in advance. But as of this writing, according to FantasyFooballCalculator.com, Forsett was going 21st overall—one spot ahead of Aaron Rodgers! That feels like the kind of reach that will get your fantasy squad in trouble. I want safe players at the top of my draft, and the tiny Justin Forsett, who'd never managed more than 619 yards rushing in a single season until '14, doesn't feel safe.

But as I mentioned, Forsett is a polarizing player because I can't guarantee you he'll get hurt, or lose the kind of significant time to one of his bigger teammates that could alter his fantasy fate. If Forsett duplicates what he did last year, he's probably undervalued at 21st overall. That's what makes him so intriguing for this season. I'm not going to wind up with him on any of my fantasy squads, but I freely admit it's possible I'll be missing out on a great producer.

Christopher Harris has a daily podcast called the Harris Football Podcast, available on iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn and wherever else you download. You can also find his podcasts, ranks and videos at www.HarrisFootball.com.